Orange County Real Estate Market INSIGHT: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

by Patti Gregory

The Orange County real estate market is giving us some interesting signals right now.

At first glance, the numbers look pretty straightforward.

$1.20 million median sold price.

3.1 months of inventory.

40 average days on market.

But dig a little deeper and the story gets more interesting.

Buyers Have Negotiating Room

This is one of the clearest takeaways from this week's numbers.

64% of homes sold below their list price.

And 118 of the 302 homes that went under contract — 39% — had a price reduction before going into escrow.

That tells us buyers are not necessarily paying whatever price a seller puts on the property.

There is room for negotiation.

But buyers shouldn't mistake that for a market where everything sits.

40% of this week's closed sales went under contract within two weeks.

Good homes that are priced correctly can still move.

Sellers: Pricing Matters

This is where the data becomes especially useful.

Nearly 4 out of every 10 new contracts followed a price reduction.

That's a pretty clear signal.

If a home isn't generating activity, today's buyers are often telling you something.

The answer isn't always another week on the market.

Sometimes it's the price.

Marketing matters.

Presentation matters.

Your Realtor utilizing AI

But pricing strategy matters from day one.

Now Watch the Inventory

This is the part I'm watching most closely.

There were 294 new listings this week.

At the same time:

302 homes went under contract
157 listings expired or cancelled

That means 459 listings left the market through pending sales, expirations or cancellations.

Only 294 new listings came on.

One week isn't enough to call it a trend.

But it's enough to pay attention.

If that pattern continues, inventory could begin tightening as we move into October.

Countywide Numbers Don't Tell the Whole Story

Orange County is a big place.

And the numbers can look very different depending on where you are.

This week:

Coastal OC: $1.90M median

South OC: $1.07M

Central OC: $1.10M

North OC: $1.03M

And even within those regions, there are major differences.

For example:

San Juan Capistrano: $1.43M median / 22 days

Laguna Niguel: $1.10M / 61 days

Rancho Santa Margarita: $1.24M / 14 days

Coto de Caza: $3.95M / 72 days

Same county.

Very different market.

That's why I don't recommend making a real estate decision based on a single Orange County statistic.

Your neighborhood matters.

Your price point matters.

Your property type matters.

So What Does This Mean?

For buyers, there is opportunity.

There is negotiating room.

But don't assume every seller will negotiate heavily, especially when the property is well-priced and attracting attention.

For sellers, this is a market where pricing correctly matters.

The days of simply putting a high number on a property and waiting to see what happens can be expensive.

And for everyone?

Watch the inventory.

The next few weeks should tell us whether this week's market flow was simply a one-week fluctuation or the beginning of a more meaningful shift.

That's where the real market INSIGHT comes from.

Not just looking at prices.

Looking at what buyers are actually doing.

I’m always here for your Real Estate question.

Patti Gregory Realtor
Haven Realty Group
714.398.1998
REAL Brokerage
DRE 01182154

Source: CRMLS. Closed, under-contract and new-listing activity for Orange County residential properties, September 23–30, 2026. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Prices are sold prices.